Availability bias, also known as the availability heuristic, is a cognitive bias that influences people to overestimate the importance or likelihood of events based on their immediate recall. This bias occurs when individuals make judgments about the probability of events based on how easily examples come to mind.
The concept was first introduced by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. According to this heuristic, if something can be recalled easily, people tend to think of it as more common or more likely than things that are harder to recall or imagine. This can happen for a variety of reasons, such as:
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Recent Exposure: If someone has recently seen or heard about an event, it’s more likely to be at the forefront of their mind. For example, after watching news reports about airplane accidents, a person might overestimate the risks of air travel.
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Emotional Impact: Emotionally charged events are more easily remembered. A traumatic personal experience, such as being involved in a car accident, might lead someone to overestimate the likelihood of accidents in general.
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Media Coverage: Extensive media coverage can make certain issues feel more prevalent or important than they actually are. For instance, sensational reporting on violent crimes can lead to an overestimation of their frequency.
Availability bias can lead to skewed perceptions and poor decision-making because it is not based on actual frequencies or probabilities, but rather on the ease of recall or the impact of recent or memorable information. This bias is a significant factor in many areas, including risk assessment, decision making, and policy development. Being aware of and adjusting for this bias can help individuals and organizations make more balanced and informed decisions.
According to the Two Systems of Thinking - People who follow System 1 does this, especially when: They are working on some task at the same time, Something that happened in their life made them happy, The topic is too alien, and has no way to explain or If they are ‘feeling’ powerful.