The hot hand fallacy is a cognitive Bias or belief in which people think that someone’s recent success in a random event, like sports or gambling, is likely to continue in subsequent attempts. This term is often used in the context of basketball, where players are believed to have a “hot hand” after making several shots in a row, leading to the expectation that they will continue to shoot successfully.
The fallacy lies in the belief that these successes create a streak that has a higher likelihood of continuing, despite the fact that each event (like a basketball shot or a roll of the dice) is statistically independent of the previous ones. In other words, the likelihood of success remains constant, and past successes do not influence the probability of success in future attempts.
The concept of the hot hand fallacy arose from a 1985 study by Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, which analyzed basketball shooting streaks and found no significant evidence for the “hot hand” phenomenon. However, it’s worth noting that subsequent research has sometimes challenged this conclusion, suggesting there can be scenarios where a streak is not purely random, especially in skill-based activities.
In broader terms, the hot hand fallacy is an example of how people can misinterpret randomness and patterns in everyday life, leading to erroneous beliefs and decision-making biases. This fallacy has implications in various fields, including sports, gambling, financial markets, and decision-making under uncertainty.